Russia-Ukraine: Two men went to war, later Strong Men Jumped in

Can super power leaders call for Diplomatic Dialogue than funding wars? Super power leaders are messing up by supporting and giving billions of money, antitank rockets, ammunition and other means of bleeding the invaders to Ukrainians to fight against Russia. When I say they are messing up, i am meaning it this way: Being so passionate about humanity and interested on International Relations, and Diplomacy made me follow each event on how it started and unfolding until now.

The fourth week of the war now and super power leaders including the United States and Western  have moved to fund Ukrainians to fight and resist the war against one of the nuclear Arsenal. They even went ahead to engage civilians who have never attained any use of gun training in the name of patriotism and nationalism to fight for their country. Well, I lived in countries of wars and witnessed cruelty of humanity in one way and the other. If I say that Ukrainians have been lucky that Russians soldiers never intended to kill their brothers and sisters instead targeting infrastructures development and the fellow soldiers on the battlefield I would not be wrong. Otherwise, you would never like the results of engaging civilians into such war that has a cause and it is imminent to the Kremlin. They could be shot not accidentally but targeted like opponents.

On different social media platforms, and comments expressed on published articles, many people have called for the United States to send American soldiers in Ukraine to fight against Russia, i would understand them based on how we think super power countries would act in case there is a war threatening a sovereign country like Ukraine. We should however remember that NATO is composed of countries that Ukraine is not a signatory, it is currently out of membership, any military involvement would be violating the pact by member countries. And a slide mistake to send Americans soldiers to fight against Russia, could be the worst decision Biden Administration could make in any other way. Though this is still a disappointment, I can not stop blaming over 30 countries for funding, and backing a small country to keep fighting a nuclear Arsenal. The country is losing humanity in the name of heroism, even if they win the war, Ukraine will still count on immense losses for years. The losses for Russia were pre-anticipated. Because, they knew that waging war on Ukraine with its allies would be a cross to carry on their own in spite of the root causes that war had to be the last option.

I would appreciate it if leaders engaged in diplomatic channels before the war broke into Ukraine, and why the Ukrainian President never heeds from US intelligence then moved forward to engage in talks with Putin. US intelligence and Biden Administration had warned and predicted when the war would happen, they even went ahead to call for Americans to leave the country ahead of time. This was the best sign for Zelensky to immediately engage in talks with his counterpart, Putin. 

I understand Zelensky wished to never listen from US intelligence and believed that in case of any escalation Western and US would fight by his side. This should have been not considered if he ever thought of the consequences that war would carry to his country and people.

During my childhood, i witnessed a couple of wars and i can confirm that their impact was heavier, the infrastructures destroyed, Post Trauma Stress Disorder that lives on among displaced, refugees and human capital lost may never be regained back. I would therefore engage in any diplomatic talks than anything else. And this was very possible based on how Putin was clear in regards with his intention to invade Ukraine.

Media reports on the ground indicate that war in Ukraine is getting more dangerous, in part because it is going better than Ukraine’s supporters could have imagined. President Joe Biden has sought to reconcile two conflicting objectives: avoiding U.S. military intervention while also helping Ukraine and making Moscow pay a high price for aggression. The time Russian President Vladimir Putin feels discomfort, the outcome would be disastrous to humanity than it could be if other diplomatic possible channels have been applied. Some may argue that, the worse Russia does, the greater risks the U.S. and its European allies may face.

Putin and most observers expected that Russian forces would quickly break Ukrainian resistance. This is not the case, some people have called it a war between U.S and Europe against Russia fighting inside Ukraine, and this is based on more days the war has taken to end, the support Ukrainians have been receiving from US and Europe, the most calls by Ukrainian President to block the air space so that Russians could hardly use air space to strike the country.

Moscow holds swaths of Ukrainian territory; its early gains in the south were impressive. There is a danger that it could cut off Ukrainian forces in the east, encircle and besiege Kyiv, or seize Mariupol and Odesa on the southern coast. Russia still has preponderant combat power. I however anticipate danger as Western money and arms are enhancing Ukrainian endurance. This would hold the war longer than the Kremlin anticipated. What if the Kremlin runs short of arms and money? This is another analysis I will bring on soon.

Biden’s approach to Ukraine has been straightforward: He has punished Russia while scrupulously refusing to get involved in the fighting. Biden Administration and its allies have hit Moscow with far-reaching, hard-biting sanctions; they have given Ukraine antitank rockets, ammunition and other means of bleeding the invaders.

On Wednesday, Biden said the U.S. will send an additional $800 million in including cutting-edge explosive drones, and will help the Ukrainians acquire more lethal air-defense systems.

Yet Biden has ruled out a no-fly zone over Ukraine (a step most defense experts believe would be ineffectual, because it would not affect the Russian ground forces and artillery doing most of the damage), let alone more significant forms of direct U.S. military intervention. He halted the transfer of Polish jets to Kyiv for fear of provoking Moscow.

“We will defend every inch of NATO territory,” he tweeted, but “we will not fight a war against Russia in Ukraine,” because that would be “World War III.” Biden’s instincts are reasonable, but there are major perils ahead that could force a rethink of U.S. policy.

As Putin worries what stalemate or defeat might mean for his political survival, he could resort to dramatic, brutal tactics in hopes of breaking Ukraine’s will. Russian doctrine emphasizes an escalate to de-escalate strategy of limited nuclear strikes to avoid conventional military defeat. Yet even short of that, Putin looks determined to enforce his ambition regarding the purpose for the war he started with Ukraine.

What if Russia employs chemical weapons in Ukraine, or it escalates the conventional bombardment of major cities with appalling humanitarian consequences. The latter could have been reported happening in cities such as Mariupol and Kharkiv, while chemical attacks are reportedly under consideration in Moscow.

Russia could also intensify attacks near the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s borders with western Ukraine or threaten nearby NATO countries militarily to sever the lifeline keeping Ukraine alive. Putin previewed this tactic when he used cruise missiles to pummel a base near the Polish border formerly used by U.S. troops  and now used by foreign fighters flocking to aid Ukraine.

Any of these options could appeal to Putin looking to win a fight that, as U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines has said, he “cannot afford to lose.” And any of them could provoke louder calls for intervention in the West.